A Vote for Stability in an Unstable World: the 2025 Election Explained

With the results of the Australian federal election now largely settled, it seems clear that Australians cast a vote for stability in an increasingly unstable world by returning the Albanese Labor government with an enlarged majority of at least 90 seats. Here’s what matters from the results as they fell into place.

What we know

Labor’s victory came primarily at the expense of the Liberal/National Coalition whose seat count is likely to finish in the low 40s. While this represents a significant loss for the Coalition, minor parties also lost out. The Greens went backwards in the lower house and will lose three of their four seats, including that of leader Adam Bandt. Their consistent performance in the face of minor party losses, however, means that they will now hold the balance of power in the Senate. 

What does this mean?

Labor’s re-election represents a vote for stability and continuity. After a first term largely free from scandal and marked by competent governance, Australians rewarded Anthony Albanese with another term: a clear endorsement of a steady hand on the wheel in turbulent times.

In contrast, the opposition floundered. Peter Dutton’s unpopularity was no secret: polling throughout the past year showed him consistently trailing the Prime Minister, despite cost-of-living anxieties penalising the Labor government. The Coalition ran an incompetent campaign, failing to find a compelling narrative or alternative vision. Attempts to channel culture-war politics and align rhetorically with Trump-style messaging, as seen in Canada’s own conservative failures, only further alienated mainstream voters and the Coalition blew a Two Party Preferred advantage to be behind by the end of the campaign. Key spokespeople being filmed with MAGA hats only made a bad situation worse. Clive Palmer, meanwhile, once again opened his wallet, but his massive campaign spend and spam SMS assault on Australian voters yielded zero seats.

The real surprise was the Greens, who might have been expected to pick up on the mood of progressive discontent, lost ground, going from four lower house seats to just one. Despite high hopes and internal spin, the numbers tell a clear story: the party went backwards in parliamentary representation (if not in its total share of the vote). That hostile preference deals worked to secure this shift will be little comfort. The Greens’ struggle to convert energy into electoral gains raises questions about their role as a parliamentary party with aspirations to government, not just a Senate balance-of-power. The loss of Adam Bandt will be difficult to bear, but Max Chandler-Mather, the Greens’ housing spokesman, has also lost his seat. If a party of the left can’t capitalise on discontent with Australia’s ridiculous housing crisis, then it’s in more trouble than its stable Senate numbers may suggest.

Labor’s agenda for a second term

Labor’s second term won’t be without serious challenges. Global economic turbulence continues to roil markets and domestic confidence. The cost of living crisis remains significant, with housing affordability in particular emerging as a flashpoint. Climate change, too, remains an unresolved tension in Labor’s platform; rhetoric and modest progress must now give way to decisive action.

Reviving a shelved Environmental Protection Agency is back on the table, and, with a more secure mandate, Labor now faces the question it has long avoided: will it finally confront the fossil fuel industry in a meaningful way? The opportunity is there. So is the political capital.

The 2025 election wasn't a revolution: it was a reassertion. Australians chose competence over chaos, continuity over disruption. 

In an era of instability, that is itself a bolder choice than it might first seem.