The Pacific is in a powerful position ahead of COP31 despite bungled Australian bid

High expectations were dashed at COP30 last week with an outcome no one is celebrating. It was weak, vague, and failed to deliver the climate action frontline communities need. And to make matters worse, Australia’s long-running bid to host COP31 ended in a chastening loss to Türkiye.

Let’s not mince words: the Albanese Government bungled the bid. The PM never threw his weight behind the push and there was a clear lack of coordination between the PMO, DFAT and the Climate Change Department. Approving new coal and gas projects while seeking to play a key role in guiding the global transition from fossil fuels to renewables also made for some awkward questions at press conferences. 

But to focus solely on failure misses the bigger picture. The last-minute compromise still gives the Pacific real power that can help shape a stronger, more just global climate agenda than an Australian-hosted COP ever could. The Pacific’s influence is now built into the heart of COP31, not as a guest, but as a co-architect of its agenda.

COP in Ankara but anchored in the Pacific

Despite some strong reactions, the final arrangement still represents a good outcome for the Pacific. Türkiye is hosting but Australia is President of Negotiations, giving Australia and the Pacific direct influence over the agenda, the talks, and the political tone of the entire process. The only other occasion a Pacific Island nation held the presidency was in 2017 when Fiji presided over COP23 at the UNFCCC headquarters in Bonn, Germany.

A COP president isn’t a ceremonial role. The position comes with concrete responsibilities that can be leveraged for climate justice, including:

• Setting the political narrative and priorities of the summit

• Shaping the draft decisions negotiators spend months working from

• Driving progress (or blocking it) on issues like Loss and Damage, finance, adaptation, and the fossil fuel phase-out

• Convene and design ministerials that set the tempo of negotiations

• Broker compromises and elevate Pacific priorities to the top of global discussions

• Build alliances and isolate blockers

This is real power to set the global climate agenda, and it’s now formally tied to Australia and the Pacific, which has been unofficially discharging this duty for decades.

A Pacific pre-COP

One of the most significant wins is the commitment to hold a pre-COP in the Pacific. Pre-COP is where ministers align on priorities, build coalitions, and settle early disagreements before the formal negotiations. Hosting it in the Pacific puts frontline realities at the centre of global diplomacy, and creates a powerful platform for collective pressure on Australia to finally match its rhetoric with real action.

For a region that has consistently led on ambition, from the 1.5°C campaign to the International Court of Justice Advisory Opinion, this is an opportunity to set the terms of debate.

Where the Pacific can progress climate justice at COP31

With agenda-shaping power and a pre-COP, the Pacific can move the needle in several concrete areas.

Loss and Damage finance

The Loss and Damage fund is under-resourced and uncertain, but the COP31 presidency gives Australia a chance to fix that, and the Pacific a chance to push it to do so. The presidency can broker real commitments from wealthy nations, establish a credible replenishment cycle, and ensure the fund finally becomes accessible, predictable, and grounded in frontline realities rather than diplomatic abstractions.

Climate finance reform

The Pacific can also use this moment to demand genuine reform of the global finance system. That means pushing for a clear roadmap toward the post-2025 goal, shifting funding from loans to grants, and pressing Australia itself to step up with increased, directly-accessible climate finance. With the presidency in Australian hands, the region has unprecedented leverage to force these expectations onto the agenda.

Fossil Fuel Phase-Out

Australia is a major part of the problem here, but paradoxically, that makes the presidency even more potent. The president must pursue collective rather than their country's national interest and the Pacific can insist that a fossil fuel phase-out remaining on the agenda is a test of Australia's impartiality as president. 

Accountability and integrity

With the ICJ Advisory Opinion now a global reference point, the Pacific can use COP31 to reinforce the legal obligations that major emitters can no longer ignore. Preventing climate harm, aligning domestic policy with science, and strengthening a rules-based approach to climate governance must all sit at the heart of the negotiations. This is an opportunity to anchor Pacific diplomacy in clear legal expectations.

Australia’s responsibility and its test

None of this lets the Albanese Government off the hook. The chasm between its warm rhetoric and its proactive fossil fuel expansion remains the biggest threat to its credibility, and the Pacific’s trust, as outlined in a new report by the Fossil Free Pacific campaign. But Australia now has a responsibility it cannot avoid: to lead a COP that reflects the priorities of the region it claims as family.

If Labor wants to restore trust, it must stop approving new coal and gas, increase climate finance, champion a fossil fuel phase-out, and use its presidency to deliver a COP31 outcome centred on justice rather than politics. Anything less will be yet another betrayal, and the Pacific will not hesitate to call it out.