Winning slowly on climate change is the same as losing

The exhortation to act on climate change before it’s too late has been heard so often that it is almost cliche. But what does ‘urgent’ mean in a practical sense for climate advocacy organisations and for how they operate?

‘Winning slowly is the same as losing’

While some campaigns can take incremental wins as stepping stones towards a broader goal, climate action has long passed the stage where this is a viable path to success. The changes needed are so significant, that wholesale systems shifts will be required. 

To take one example, in order to have a good chance of keeping global heating below two degrees, developed economies must all but completely decarbonise their electricity systems by 2030. While this may have seemed a distant goal in, say, 2015, 2030 is now less than 5 years away. Some countries have made good progress, while others lag far behind. But, crucially, every day or week or month of delay is a measurable fraction of a degree of decarbonisation that does not happen in time.

Climate tipping points

The sense of urgency here is broad: the more time that passes without serious action, the harder the remaining task is. But, beyond this linear calculation, the risk of triggering climate ‘tipping points’ looms large.

Perhaps the most critical such factor is the thawing of the planet’s permafrost: soil that remains frozen year round, largely in far-northern latitudes. Permafrost contains large amounts of organic matter. If it thaws, the decay of that matter will release methane: one of the most potent short term greenhouse gases. As more permafrost thaws, more methane is released, leading to more global heating which thaws more permafrost: a vicious cycle that, once started, will be impossible to arrest. 

Nobody knows for sure how close we are to this point, and it is likely that permafrost will respond to global heating differently in different locations. But that risk should bring into sharp focus the urgency of decarbonisation.

So what does this mean for climate advocacy?

If we believe that climate advocacy organisations have power to help drive decarbonisation, then they must act with the speed that this power demands. While ‘climate action now’ is the common public mantra, it must also be reflected in internal organisational processes and decision making forums if it is to be meaningfully actioned.

This means formulating strategic timelines, and sticking to them. It means being uncompromising when it comes to tolerating delays. It means assessing not only the risk of a proposed action but also the risk to your mission if you fail to carry it out, or fail to carry it out quickly. And it means being ready to leave behind systems and processes that aren’t working - or that aren’t working fast enough - in favour of those that do.

To put it another, more provocative, way: what percentage of a degree of global heating is that month’s delay in launching your campaign, say, going to be responsible for?